By 2028 will there be another assassination attempt on Donald Trump?
Política de EE. UU.One-OffDeportesCrimen y justiciaGolf1aManifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosBien calibradoPronóstico comunitario actualNo 60.9%
Pronosticadores
5
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 7 minutos
13 sept 26, 11:12 UTC31 dic 27, 23:59 UTC
Tendencias
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Manifold MarketsReglas
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves to YES if there is another confirmed, deliberate assassination attempt on Donald Trump occurring between September 13, 2026, and December 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM Eastern Time.
- To qualify for a YES resolution, an event must meet the following criteria:
- Target and Intent: The act must be a physical, deliberate attempt to take the life of Donald Trump.
- Lethal Means: The attempt must involve a weapon or method capable of causing death (e.g., firearms, explosives, poisoning, or direct physical assault).
- Official Characterization: The incident must be officially characterized as an "assassination attempt" or "attempted assassination" by a major U.S. federal or state law enforcement agency (such as the FBI, U.S. Secret Service, or Department of Justice), or result in federal charges explicitly for the attempted assassination of Donald Trump (e.g., under 18 U.S. Code § 1751).
