will trump be assasinated in US?
Materias primasOne-OffPolíticaPolítica de EE. UU.ElecciónOriente MedioDeportesCrimen y justiciaGolf2mManifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualNo 94.8%
Pronosticadores
35
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 5 horas
Desactualizado7 mar 26, 1:13 UTC31 dic 26, 1:12 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
will trump be assasinated in 2026
Manifold MarketsWill Donald Trump finally get sentenced to the Big House (or worse) after he leaves office in 2029?
Manifold MarketsBy 2028 will there be another assassination attempt on Donald Trump?
Manifold MarketsWill Trump 2.0 be the end of Democracy as we know it?
Manifold MarketsWill MAGA represent more than 20% of the electorate after January 2029?
Manifold MarketsWhen will Trump golf this weekend? (10/23-10/25)
KalshiReglas
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves YES if Donald Trump is assassinated (killed by an intentional act of violence) at any point during the calendar year 2026.
- Resolution will be based on confirmation from major news outlets and official sources.
- The market resolves NO if Trump survives the entire year 2026 without being assassinated.
- Trump survived assassination attempts in Butler, Pennsylvania in July 2024 and West Palm Beach, Florida two months later, with the second attacker sentenced to life in prison.
- A deadly confrontation at Mar-a-Lago in February 2026 represents the latest in a string of high-profile security incidents, with former Secret Service officials noting Trump is "the most threatened president in the history of the U.S." Recent attacks have been characterized as "super low-tech," with lone actors posing particular challenges to presidential protection.
