Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualNo 89.7%
Pronosticadores
13
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 10 horas
Desactualizado2 abr 26, 15:04 UTC31 dic 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
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PolymarketReglas
Will there be an assassination attempt on JD Vance before the end of 2026? In addition to death or injury, this also includes a clearly documented attempt from which Vance escapes unharmed.
- Update 2026-04-26 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator is not yet resolving this market following an incident at the White House Correspondents' Dinner.
- The creator believes Trump was more likely the intended target rather than Vance, and will wait for investigation results before resolving YES or NO.
- Update 2026-04-27 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator will not resolve YES based on the April 25, 2026 White House Correspondents' Dinner incident.
- The attacker's manifesto targeted "Administration officials" by rank, with Trump as the primary target — Vance was not specifically or individually targeted.
- The creator is applying a narrow interpretation: a general threat against a group does not trigger a person-specific assassination attempt market.
Mercados abiertos
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- JD Vance-0.6pt24%
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- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 605,6 M €
- Volumen 24h
- 693 mil €
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- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.1pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 resultados más
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- 603,1 M €
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- $10M+1.4pt96%
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- 54,7 M €
- Volumen 24h
- 266,9 mil €
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- 248,7 mil €
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Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Will there be an assassination attempt on JD Vance before the end of 2026??
- Manifold Markets cotiza No al 90% a fecha de 8 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve Will there be an assassination attempt on JD Vance before the end of 2026??
- Está previsto que Will there be an assassination attempt on JD Vance before the end of 2026? se resuelva el 31 de diciembre de 2026.
- ¿Cómo se liquida Will there be an assassination attempt on JD Vance before the end of 2026??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: Will there be an assassination attempt on JD Vance before the end of 2026? In addition to death or injury, this also includes a clearly documented attempt from which Vance escapes unharmed.