Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosBien calibradoPronóstico comunitario actualNo 62.8%
Pronosticadores
5
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 23 horas
Desactualizado24 ene 26, 17:12 UTC31 dic 27, 23:59 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
Will there be a major movie about OpenClaw by EOY 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill there be any major breakthrough in LLM continual learning before 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill there be a major US government bailout of a technology company before 2028?
Manifold MarketsBefore 2028, will there be a major self-improving AI policy*?
Manifold MarketsWill there be a major hurricane landfall within 50 miles of Harris, Texas in 2026?
ForecastExWill there be a major hurricane landfall within 50 miles of Texas in 2026?
ForecastExReglas
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves YES if a major outbreak of avian flu is confirmed by the end of 2027.
- A "major outbreak" is defined as one of the following occurring before January 1, 2028:
- Sustained human-to-human transmission: Confirmed human-to-human transmission of H5N1 with at least 10 confirmed cases resulting from person-to-person spread (not occupational exposure to animals).
- Significant poultry mortality event: A single outbreak affecting 10+ million birds across one or more countries, requiring mass culling operations.
- Pandemic declaration: Official declaration of a pandemic by the WHO related to avian influenza.
