Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualSí 76%
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Actualizado hace 13 horas
Desactualizado23 ago 25, 17:31 UTC31 dic 27, 23:59 UTC
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Will there by a major breakthrough in LLM continual learning before 2027?
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The breakthrough needs to make LLMs better at learning from context at test time.
- Some examples of results that could demonstrate this breakthrough would be a model that shows less degradation than contemporaries on long-context or one that can more effectively learn from mistakes during agentic tasks.
- The breakthrough needs to be major and conceptual, it can't be something as simple as models getting better at in-context learning through more scaling.
- In order to count this breakthrough must apply to general LLMs, not just using continual learning to solve a narrow problem or class of problems
- A paper claiming to have a really good result isn't enough (like the Titans paper).
- The breakthrough must be widely accepted as legitimate and there should be publicly accessible models that use it
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Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Will there be any major breakthrough in LLM continual learning before 2028??
- Manifold Markets cotiza Yes al 76% a fecha de 8 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve Will there be any major breakthrough in LLM continual learning before 2028??
- Está previsto que Will there be any major breakthrough in LLM continual learning before 2028? se resuelva el 31 de diciembre de 2027.
- ¿Cómo se liquida Will there be any major breakthrough in LLM continual learning before 2028??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: The breakthrough needs to make LLMs better at learning from context at test time.