Will the US government introduce any domestic restrictions on open-weight LLMs by EOY 2026?
One-OffIARegulaciónPolítica de EE. UU.Tecnología2mManifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualNo 74.9%
Pronosticadores
20
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 28 minutos
13 jun 26, 21:36 UTC31 dic 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendencias
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KalshiReglas
For the purposes of this market, “to introduce a domestic restriction on open-weight LLMs” means new federal action that removes or limits US citizens’ ability to develop, access, use, or modify one or more open-weight LLMs. “New” is relative to this market’s creation on June 13, 2026.
- I will resolve to YES if, by the end of 2026, this occurs, is publicly reported, and is documented on this market.
- I will resolve to NO at the close of the market otherwise.
- Update 2026-06-25 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): A supply chain risk designation applied to an open-weight model (similar to the one applied to Claude) would not resolve this market YES.
- The market tracks new general restrictions on what Americans can do with open-weight LLMs, not restrictions limited to government/defense contractor usage.
