Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualNo 94.6%
Pronosticadores
32
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 3 horas
Desactualizado23 abr 24, 17:56 UTC1 ene 27, 4:59 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
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KalshiElon Musk # tweets September 4 - September 11, 2026?
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PolymarketReglas
Will Zuck and LeCun release all model variants of Llama 4? Or will they at least hide the most powerful ones?
- Update 2026-03-18 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator is waiting an additional year before resolving to ensure the Llama 4 Behemoth model variant is not released before resolving.
Mercados abiertos
TechKALSHIBTC price on Sep 8, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $76,750 or above99%
- $76,500 or above99%
- $76,250 or above99%
+77 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 1,3 M €
- Volumen 24h
- 1,3 M €
KALSHIBTC price on Sep 8, 2026 at 2pm EDT?
- $78,400 or above99%
- $78,300 or above99%
- $78,200 or above99%
+97 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 1,1 M €
- Volumen 24h
- 802,6 mil €
KALSHIBTC 15 min · $78,547.84 target
- Yes60%
- No40%
- Volumen total
- 736,5 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 585,6 mil €
KALSHIBTC price on Sep 11, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $72,500 or above+2.0pt99%
- $72,000 or above+3.0pt99%
- $69,500 or above+1.0pt98%
+47 resultados más
- Volumen total
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 4 - September 11, 2026?
- 180-199+10.0pt31.4%
- 200-219+8.0pt22.9%
- 160-179-4.0pt19.1%
+23 resultados más
KALSHIHighest temperature in Los Angeles on Sep 8, 2026?
- 88° to 89°+9.0pt37%
- 90° or above+11.0pt28%
- 86° to 87°-12.0pt25%
+3 resultados más
- Volumen total
- Where will it rain on Sep 8, 2026?
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- When will Apple release the iPhone 18?
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Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Will Llama 4 be fully open-weight??
- Manifold Markets cotiza No al 95% a fecha de 8 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve Will Llama 4 be fully open-weight??
- Está previsto que Will Llama 4 be fully open-weight? se resuelva el 1 de enero de 2027.
- ¿Cómo se liquida Will Llama 4 be fully open-weight??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: Will Zuck and LeCun release all model variants of Llama 4? Or will they at least hide the most powerful ones?