¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de When will Reflection AI release its first open-weight model??

Manifold Markets cotiza Oct 13 to Oct 19 al 66.2% a fecha de 24 de octubre de 2026.

¿Cuándo se resuelve When will Reflection AI release its first open-weight model??

Está previsto que When will Reflection AI release its first open-weight model? se resuelva el 16 de noviembre de 2026.

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Oct 13 to Oct 19 66.2%

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When will Reflection AI (the Nvidia-backed lab behind reflection.ai) publicly release the weights of its first open-weight language model?

Background: On Oct 4, 2026, Axios reported, citing people familiar with the plans, that Reflection is preparing to release its first open-weight model "soon", aimed at competing with the top Chinese open models (DeepSeek, Qwen).
Reflection has not confirmed a date or a name.
What counts as a release: the model's weights become downloadable by any member of the public.
Hosting on Hugging Face (or a similar public host) counts, even behind a standard click-through license.
It does not count if access is limited to a waitlist, selected partners, or individually approved applicants, if only an API or chat app ships with no weights, or if the release is only an announcement, paper or benchmark.