KalshiComprobar disponibilidadKYC requerido2% de comisiónDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptableProbabilidad implícita actual
No 86%
Calidad del mercado
66 / 100
Calidad mediaVolumen 24h
17,2 €
Liquidez
13,3 mil €
Liquidez mediaCompra / Venta
6.3% / 7.0%
Spread
0.7 pt
Spread estrechoDatos de mercado
Actualizado hace 6 minutos
29 dic 25, 15:00 UTC2 ene 27, 4:59 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
Will the US government introduce any domestic restrictions on open-weight LLMs by EOY 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Ontario lift its U.S. alcohol restrictions in 2026?
KalshiWill OpenAI’s Astra face U.S. government restrictions before January 1, 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill the SAVE Act become law?
KalshiWill the SAVE America Act become law?
KalshiWill the SAVE Act become law by the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsReglas
If a bill becomes law regulating AI by Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Liquida mediante:Library of Congress
- The bill must impose one of the following restrictions on products using large language models: forbid their creation; set limits on how they're trained, for example by limiting access to previously usable training data or by setting limits on the number of parameters they may be trained with; prevent their use for certain applications or uses, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web; or restrict the ability of US citizens to use foreign LLM-based products or restrict US operated LLM products or businesses from being sold to foreign customers or entities.
- The export restriction must be specific, and not universally applied to all exports or exports of a broad industry.
- For example, a blanket ban on exports to a specific country would not qualify, and neither would a blanket ban on allowing the purchase of US businesses by investors in a specific country.
- Introducing a ban that specifically limits the export of artificial intelligence or machine learning software to a specific country or a broad number of countries would qualify if it was known to apply to LLM products.
- An introduced bill specifically classifying artificial intelligence software or machine learning models such that they would newly qualify for existing export bans would qualify.
Mercados abiertos
AIKALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max-12.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking4%
+3 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 135,2 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 102,7 mil €
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+6.5pt62.1%
- 2027-3.5pt28.4%
- 2026+2.0pt9.5%
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+3.5pt90%
- November 30,85%
+7 resultados más
- Volumen total
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.7pt61.4%
- ChatGPT-2.1pt22.8%
- Grok-0.1pt7.9%
+5 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 9,1 M €
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-1.0pt11.2%
- Grok2.8%
+4 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 325 mil €
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-2.5pt66%
- 1490+-9.0pt51%
- 1500+-3.0pt23%
+2 resultados más
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Will LLM restrictions become law in 2026??
- Kalshi cotiza No al 86% a fecha de 8 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve Will LLM restrictions become law in 2026??
- Está previsto que Will LLM restrictions become law in 2026? se resuelva el 2 de enero de 2027.
- ¿Cómo se liquida Will LLM restrictions become law in 2026??
- Kalshi liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: If a bill becomes law regulating AI by Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.