Will LLM restrictions become law in 2026?

IA RegulaciónOne-Off5m

KalshiComprobar disponibilidadKYC requerido2% de comisiónDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aproximada

Probabilidad implícita actual

Sí 14%

Calidad del mercado

44 / 100

Baja calidad

Volumen 24h

3,5 €

Liquidez

13,4 mil €

Liquidez media

Compra / Venta

14.0% / 16.0%

Spread

14.3%

Spread amplio

Datos de mercado

Actualizado hace 11 minutos

29 dic 25, 15:002 ene 27, 4:59

Tendencias

Resultado24hProbabilidad

Solo fondos simulados, sin dinero realNo es asesoramiento financiero

Resultado elegido

Yes14%

Apuesta (USDT)

Reglas

If a bill becomes law regulating AI by Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

The bill must impose one of the following restrictions on products using large language models: forbid their creation; set limits on how they're trained, for example by limiting access to previously usable training data or by setting limits on the number of parameters they may be trained with; prevent their use for certain applications or uses, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web; or restrict the ability of US citizens to use foreign LLM-based products or restrict US operated LLM products or businesses from being sold to foreign customers or entities.
The export restriction must be specific, and not universally applied to all exports or exports of a broad industry.
For example, a blanket ban on exports to a specific country would not qualify, and neither would a blanket ban on allowing the purchase of US businesses by investors in a specific country.
Introducing a ban that specifically limits the export of artificial intelligence or machine learning software to a specific country or a broad number of countries would qualify if it was known to apply to LLM products.
An introduced bill specifically classifying artificial intelligence software or machine learning models such that they would newly qualify for existing export bans would qualify.

Tendencia de volumen

2 jul16d de datos21 jul

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Reglas

If a bill becomes law regulating AI by Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

The bill must impose one of the following restrictions on products using large language models: forbid their creation; set limits on how they're trained, for example by limiting access to previously usable training data or by setting limits on the number of parameters they may be trained with; prevent their use for certain applications or uses, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web; or restrict the ability of US citizens to use foreign LLM-based products or restrict US operated LLM products or businesses from being sold to foreign customers or entities.
The export restriction must be specific, and not universally applied to all exports or exports of a broad industry.
For example, a blanket ban on exports to a specific country would not qualify, and neither would a blanket ban on allowing the purchase of US businesses by investors in a specific country.
Introducing a ban that specifically limits the export of artificial intelligence or machine learning software to a specific country or a broad number of countries would qualify if it was known to apply to LLM products.
An introduced bill specifically classifying artificial intelligence software or machine learning models such that they would newly qualify for existing export bans would qualify.

Will LLM restrictions become law in 2026?

IA RegulaciónOne-Off5m

KalshiComprobar disponibilidadKYC requerido2% de comisiónDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aproximada

Probabilidad implícita actual

Sí 14%

Calidad del mercado

44 / 100

Baja calidad

Volumen 24h

3,5 €

Liquidez

13,4 mil €

Liquidez media

Compra / Venta

14.0% / 16.0%

Spread

14.3%

Spread amplio

Datos de mercado

Actualizado hace 11 minutos

29 dic 25, 15:002 ene 27, 4:59

Tendencias

Resultado24hProbabilidad

Solo fondos simulados, sin dinero realNo es asesoramiento financiero

Resultado elegido

Yes14%

Apuesta (USDT)

Reglas

If a bill becomes law regulating AI by Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

The bill must impose one of the following restrictions on products using large language models: forbid their creation; set limits on how they're trained, for example by limiting access to previously usable training data or by setting limits on the number of parameters they may be trained with; prevent their use for certain applications or uses, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web; or restrict the ability of US citizens to use foreign LLM-based products or restrict US operated LLM products or businesses from being sold to foreign customers or entities.
The export restriction must be specific, and not universally applied to all exports or exports of a broad industry.
For example, a blanket ban on exports to a specific country would not qualify, and neither would a blanket ban on allowing the purchase of US businesses by investors in a specific country.
Introducing a ban that specifically limits the export of artificial intelligence or machine learning software to a specific country or a broad number of countries would qualify if it was known to apply to LLM products.
An introduced bill specifically classifying artificial intelligence software or machine learning models such that they would newly qualify for existing export bans would qualify.

Tendencia de volumen

2 jul16d de datos21 jul

Mercados Relacionados

When will OpenAI officially announce an IPO?

3,8 mil €

Before Sep 1, 2026: 2%

Anthropic IPO by __?

Will the US enact AI regulation for all Mythos+ models in 2026?

878,2 €

Sí: 14.3%

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will another state enact a data center moratorium in 2026?

181,5 €

Sí: 56%

KALSHI

What will happen to OpenAI by 1st January 2029

42,1 €

It IPOs at an IPO Price that gives a $1trillion or higher valuation: 60.8%

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Which engineering breakthroughs will achieve widespread commercial and societal integration by 2050? [add responses]

32,1 €

Commercial fusion power: 39.1%

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Activos en estos temas

BitcoinBTC$66,442.28+1.78%

EthereumETH$1,935.11+1.37%

SolanaSOL$78.45+0.70%

DogecoinDOGE$0.0737+1.93%

XRPXRP$1.14+2.70%

BNBBNB$573.94+0.28%

Noticias Relacionadas

White House pushes Senate Democrats to take 'historic' crypto Clarity Act ethics dealCoindesk

Senate nears bipartisan CLARITY Act deal after ethics breakthroughCrypto News

Russia passes landmark crypto bill allowing regulated retail tradingThe Block

Google Is Building an AI Chip Just for Gemini—And Investors Already Moved On ItDecrypt

White House agrees to ethics provisions in market structure billCointelegraph

Russia’s parliament passes crypto market law with $3,800 annual cap for retail investorsCoindesk

Reglas

If a bill becomes law regulating AI by Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

The bill must impose one of the following restrictions on products using large language models: forbid their creation; set limits on how they're trained, for example by limiting access to previously usable training data or by setting limits on the number of parameters they may be trained with; prevent their use for certain applications or uses, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web; or restrict the ability of US citizens to use foreign LLM-based products or restrict US operated LLM products or businesses from being sold to foreign customers or entities.
The export restriction must be specific, and not universally applied to all exports or exports of a broad industry.
For example, a blanket ban on exports to a specific country would not qualify, and neither would a blanket ban on allowing the purchase of US businesses by investors in a specific country.
Introducing a ban that specifically limits the export of artificial intelligence or machine learning software to a specific country or a broad number of countries would qualify if it was known to apply to LLM products.
An introduced bill specifically classifying artificial intelligence software or machine learning models such that they would newly qualify for existing export bans would qualify.