Will the United States of America abduct another head of state in 2026?
One-OffPolítica de EE. UU.GeopolíticaPolíticaAmérica Latina2mManifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualNo 89%
Pronosticadores
43
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 1 hora
Retrasado3 ene 26, 18:37 UTC31 dic 26, 23:59 UTC
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PolymarketReglas
Following the events in Caracas, there’s one clear question: is this the start of a trend?
- This market resolves YES if any individual named on Wikipedia’s List of current heads of state and government is abducted by any part of the United States state apparatus (military, CIA, Postal Service) for any duration before market close.
- If this does not happen before market close then the market will resolve NO.
- Evidence for YES must be a headline from either one of the five largest US news organisations or one of the top three papers of record in the relevant country.
- Abduction need not be from the country of which the individual is head of state, nor must the individual be removed to US territory for the abduction to count.
- As final arbiter of “was this an abduction” I will not bet on this market.
