Will the Portuguese ex-prime-minister José Sócrates serve time in prison due to Operação Marquês?
Crimen y justiciaOne-Off4aManifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosBien calibradoPronóstico comunitario actualNo 81.8%
Pronosticadores
4
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 50 minutos
Retrasado4 jul 25, 16:48 UTC31 dic 30, 12:57 UTC
Tendencias
Reglas
Resolves to ‘Yes’ if José Sócrates is convicted in connection with the Operação Marquês case and serves any prison time from 2025 onward as part of that conviction.
- Pre-2025 imprisonment does not count, even if credited toward a later sentence.
- If he is sentenced but does not serve any additional time because his pre-2025 preventive detention exceeds or fully covers the sentence, the market resolves to ‘No’.
- Resolves to ‘No’ if he is acquitted or never serves prison time and no further appeals are possible.
- If unresolved, the market remains open until he either serves prison time (‘Yes’) or dies without serving any (‘No’).
