Will the German government coalition hold until the next federal election in 2029?
PolíticaOne-OffEuropeElecciónGeopolítica3aManifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualNo 58.8%
Pronosticadores
15
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 15 horas
Desactualizado20 may 26, 21:00 UTC31 dic 29, 22:59 UTC
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KalshiReglas
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to YES if the government coalition currently led by Chancellor Friedrich Merz (comprising the Christian Democratic Union/Christian Social Union and the Social Democratic Party) remains in power until the next scheduled federal election.
- The market will resolve to NO if the coalition dissolves, a new government is formed, or a snap election is called prior to the next scheduled federal election in early 2029.
- Resolution will be based on official announcements from the German Federal Government, the Federal President, or the Bundestag confirming the stability or formal dissolution of the governing coalition.
- Authoritative sources include the Federal Returning Officer (Bundeswahlleiterin) and major credible news outlets reporting on German government changes.
- The 21st German Bundestag was constituted on March 25, 2025, following early federal elections held on February 23, 2025.
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Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Will the German government coalition hold until the next federal election in 2029??
- Manifold Markets cotiza No al 59% a fecha de 8 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve Will the German government coalition hold until the next federal election in 2029??
- Está previsto que Will the German government coalition hold until the next federal election in 2029? se resuelva el 31 de diciembre de 2029.
- ¿Cómo se liquida Will the German government coalition hold until the next federal election in 2029??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: Resolution criteria