¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Will Taiwan acquire nuclear weapons before 2031??

Manifold Markets cotiza No al 94.6% a fecha de 29 de octubre de 2026.

¿Cuándo se resuelve Will Taiwan acquire nuclear weapons before 2031??

Está previsto que Will Taiwan acquire nuclear weapons before 2031? se resuelva el 1 de marzo de 2031.

Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptable

Pronóstico comunitario actual

No 94.6%

Pronosticadores

Tipo de pregunta

binary

Metodología

Play-money forecasting platform

Tipo de fuente

Pronóstico

Datos de mercado

Actualizado hace 1 hora

Retrasado

9 feb 24, 13:40 UTC1 mar 31, 22:59 UTC

Tendencias

Resultado24hProbabilidad

Reglas

Resolves as YES if there is strong evidence that Taiwan has acquired at least one nuclear weapon before January 1st 2031.

This device must be under the sovereign control of the Taiwanese State, and they must have the ability to use it independently.
Different countries:
@/RemNi/will-japan-acquire-nuclear-weapons
@/RemNi/will-australia-acquire-nuclear-weap
@/RemNi/will-south-korea-acquire-nuclear-we