Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actual
No 88.2%
Pronosticadores
40
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 4 horas
Desactualizado6 jun 24, 0:06 UTC1 ene 31, 7:59 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
Will California experience an earthquake of magnitude 7.5 or greater before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill a major earthquake (above 8.0 magnitude) strike a populated area in the Pacific Ring of Fire within five years?
Manifold MarketsMajor earthquake to hit the West Coast of the US by the end of 2026?
FutuurWe discover that the US had an earthquake-producing weapon by EOY 2030
Manifold MarketsWill there be an 8 magnitude earthquake in California before 2027?
Kalshi8.0 magnitude earthquake in Japan before 2030?
KalshiReglas
Major earthquake would involve property damage of over $1B or loss of life over 100.
- Epicenter has to be within 50 miles of San Francisco.
- Loma Prieta quake would not have qualified due to distance.
Mercados abiertos
Science
POLYMARKETWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- December 31-0.8pt3%
- September 301%
- April 300%
+3 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 57,5 M €
- Volumen 24h
- 85,9 mil €
KALSHIWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
- Before Jan 20, 202921%
- Before 2028+1.0pt13%
- Before 2027+0.5pt5%
+5 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 28,7 M €
POLYMARKETWhere will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
- 175.3%
- 221.8%
- 3-0.1pt2%
+3 resultados más
- Volumen total
KALSHIWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
- Before 2035+2.0pt88%
- Before 203082%
- Before 2029+5.1pt53%
+2 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 233,1 mil €
KALSHIUS grants license for new nuclear reactor before 2027?
- No95%
- Yes-1.4pt5%
- Volumen total
- 675,4 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 1,9 mil €
POLYMARKETAI wins IMO gold medal in 2026?
- No+12.5pt88.1%
- Yes-12.5pt11.9%
- Volumen total
- 10,6 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 1,7 mil €
- Will there be an 8 magnitude earthquake in California before 2027?
- Will 2026 be the hottest year ever?
- When will Beam Therapeutics submit a BLA for Risto-cel?
- When will the Riemann hypothesis be solved?
- How many 5.5 or above earthquakes worldwide September 7 - September 13?
- 8.0 magnitude earthquake in Japan before 2030?
- Magnitude 6.5+ earthquake in LA before 2027?
- Highest earthquake magnitude in 2026?
- Major volcano eruption in 2026?
- When will Compass Pathways submit a NDA for COMP360 psilocybin?
- Natural Disaster in 2026?
Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Will San Francisco experience a major earthquake before 2030??
- Manifold Markets cotiza No al 88% a fecha de 10 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve Will San Francisco experience a major earthquake before 2030??
- Está previsto que Will San Francisco experience a major earthquake before 2030? se resuelva el 1 de enero de 2031.
- ¿Cómo se liquida Will San Francisco experience a major earthquake before 2030??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: Major earthquake would involve property damage of over $1B or loss of life over 100.