Will Russia become more authoritarian in 2026?
One-OffMiddle EastChinaLatin AmericaGeopolíticaRussia / Ukraine6mManifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualNo 51.8%
Pronosticadores
10
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 9 horas
Desactualizado11 abr 26, 16:54 UTC31 mar 27, 22:59 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
Will the United States become more authoritarian in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill India become more authoritarian in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill the US become more authoritarian or more democratic in 2026?
Manifold MarketsNothing Ever Happens: 2026
PolymarketUS imposes new sanctions on China by September 30?
PolymarketIran blockade lifted before Xi visits US?
PolymarketReglas
This question will use The Economist's Democracy Index, resolving YES if Russia's democracy score is lower in the next report (to be published in early 2027) compared to the last report.
- If the report is paywalled, I may resolve to a secondary source such as Wikipedia.
- If Russia's democracy score for 2026 is the same or higher, this question resolves NO.
- @/cash/will-the-world-become-more-authorit-2R20yhg9dh
- 🇺🇸 @/cash/will-the-us-become-more-authoritari
- 🇺🇸 @/cash/will-the-united-states-become-more-QNC56OL95y
Mercados abiertos
Middle EastPOLYMARKETIsrael closes its airspace by which date?
- September 30+18.3pt100%
- May 8-1.4pt0%
- May 31-1.2pt0%
+16 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 25,7 M €
- Volumen 24h
- 719,6 mil €
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-0.6pt47.5%
- October 31-1.0pt28.7%
- September 30-2.0pt13.1%
+17 resultados más
POLYMARKETPrime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- Gadi Eizenkot+3.4pt55.7%
- Benjamin Netanyahu-3.0pt27.8%
- Naftali Bennett8.3%
+16 resultados más
POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30+3.0pt80%
- September 18+2.0pt75%
- September 11+12.0pt71%
+2 resultados más
POLYMARKETStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?
- No+0.3pt98%
- Yes-0.3pt2%
- Volumen total
- 6,9 M €
- Volumen 24h
- 97,8 mil €
KALSHIWhen will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal?
- Before Jan 1, 2029-2.0pt69%
- Before Jul 1, 2028-1.0pt67%
- Before Jan 1, 2028-1.0pt64%
+11 resultados más
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
- Netanyahu out by which date?
- US-Iran nuclear deal?
- Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by which date?
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 15?
Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Will Russia become more authoritarian in 2026??
- Manifold Markets cotiza No al 52% a fecha de 8 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve Will Russia become more authoritarian in 2026??
- Está previsto que Will Russia become more authoritarian in 2026? se resuelva el 31 de marzo de 2027.
- ¿Cómo se liquida Will Russia become more authoritarian in 2026??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: This question will use The Economist's Democracy Index, resolving YES if Russia's democracy score is lower in the next report (to be published in early 2027) compared to the last report.