Will Norway announce a referendum about joining EU during Trumps Second Term (2025–2029)?
Política comercialOne-OffElecciónGeopolíticaEuropaPolítica de EE. UU.Política2a
Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actual
No 91%
No 91%Pronosticadores
15
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 17 horas
Desactualizado2 feb 25, 20:56 UTC1 feb 29, 22:59 UTC
Tendencias
Reglas
Background Norway has held two referendums on EU membership (1972 and 1994), both resulting in rejection.
- While Norway maintains close ties with the EU through the European Economic Area (EEA) agreement, recent polls show increasing support for EU membership, with 35.3% in favor according to recent surveys.
- This can however change quickly if e.g. Norway falls in the middle of a trade war or geographical tension between the EU and the US.
- Resolution Criteria This market will resolve YES if Norway's government officially announces a referendum on EU membership between January 20, 2025 (the start of what would have been Trump's second term) and January 20, 2029 (the end of what would have been Trump's second term).
- The market will resolve NO if no such announcement is made during this period.
- For clarity:
