Will North Korea attack South Korea's outlying islands, causing fatalities, before 2030?
ChinaOne-OffGeopolíticaPolítica3a
Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptableAviso de calidad de datosDatos de la fuente degradados
Datos del 26 oct 2026, 3:24 UTC · política pm-quality-4
Pronóstico comunitario actualNo 77.3%
Pronosticadores
16
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 11 horas
Desactualizado5 feb 24, 5:54 UTC1 ene 30, 7:59 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
Will China militarily seize any of Taiwan's outlying islands (Kinmen, Matsu, Wuqiu, Penghu) before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill China militarily seize any of Taiwan's outlying islands (Kinmen, Matsu, Wuqiu, Penghu) before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill North Korea and South Korea be unified with a formula like 'one country, two systems' by 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill China militarily seize any of Taiwan's outlying islands (Kinmen, Matsu, Wuqiu, Penghu) before the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill North Korea invade South Korea before 2027?
PolymarketNorth Korea x South Korea diplomatic meeting by...? (direct or indirect)
PolymarketReglas
North and South Korea have a long history of border clashes, many fatal.
- Several of these clashes have been over South Korea's outlying islands in the Yellow Sea.
- One of the most serious incidents happened in Nov 2010, when North and South Korea exchanged artillery fire across the disputed Northern Limit Line, with North Korea bombarding the island of Yeonpyeong.
- Most recently, in Jan 2024, North Korea fired artillery shells near (but not on) Yeonpyeong.
- This question resolves YES if a fatal attack is carried out by North Korea against a South Korean island.
- Otherwise resolves NO at the end of the decade.
