Pronóstico comunitario actual
No 89%
Pronosticadores
79
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
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Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 6 minutos
1 sept 26, 15:57 UTC30 sept 26, 23:59 UTC
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Should be a top 10 math problem of its math subfield, so nothing crazy but several mathematicians care about it and have tried solving it.
- I have started a project to see how doable this is at scale, may drop it if it doesn’t go anywhere.
- Tips welcome.
- By ‘solve’ I don't have a too airtight definition, but it would definitely count if a Lean statement was proven without exploiting bugs in the lean kernel for example, as would an involved expert mathematician signing off on it.
- Edge cases like AIs all agreeing the solution is clearly correct, and nobody managing to find errors, would lead to the market staying closed pre-resolution to give the math community time to find errors, but I may ultimately count it without strong guarantees if it seems very likely to be correct.
- A problem still counts if it's a solve that shows the problem wasn't interesting after all, or similar cope
Mercados abiertos
AI
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max-12.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking4%
+3 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 135,2 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 102,7 mil €
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- 2028+6.5pt62.1%
- 2027-3.5pt28.4%
- 2026+2.0pt9.5%
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+3.5pt90%
- November 30,85%
+7 resultados más
- Volumen total
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.7pt61.4%
- ChatGPT-2.1pt22.8%
- Grok-0.1pt7.9%
+5 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 9,1 M €
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-1.0pt11.2%
- Grok2.8%
+4 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 325 mil €
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- 1480+-2.5pt66%
- 1490+-9.0pt51%
- 1500+-3.0pt23%
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Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Will I solve an unsolved math problem with AI in September??
- Manifold Markets cotiza No al 89% a fecha de 8 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve Will I solve an unsolved math problem with AI in September??
- Está previsto que Will I solve an unsolved math problem with AI in September? se resuelva el 30 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cómo se liquida Will I solve an unsolved math problem with AI in September??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: Should be a top 10 math problem of its math subfield, so nothing crazy but several mathematicians care about it and have tried solving it.