Will Elon Musk tweet that a Grok Sucessor has achieved 'AGI-level performance' or 'AGI has been reached' in 2026?
YearlyIATecnología3mManifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualNo 78.4%
Pronosticadores
13
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 17 horas
Desactualizado30 ene 26, 16:49 UTC31 dic 26, 23:59 UTC
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KalshiReglas
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves YES if Elon Musk posts on X (formerly Twitter) a tweet explicitly stating that a Grok successor model has achieved "AGI-level performance," "AGI has been reached," or substantially equivalent language claiming AGI achievement by December 31, 2026.
- The tweet must be posted by @elonmusk's verified account and must specifically reference a Grok model version (e.g., Grok 5, Grok 6, etc.).
- Resolution is based on the literal text of the tweet; claims about "approaching AGI" or "near-AGI capabilities" do not qualify.
- The market resolves NO if no such tweet is posted by the deadline.
- Elon Musk predicts that his company xAI could achieve artificial general intelligence (AGI) within the next couple of years, and maybe as soon as 2026.
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Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Will Elon Musk tweet that a Grok Sucessor has achieved 'AGI-level performance' or 'AGI has been reached' in 2026??
- Manifold Markets cotiza No al 78% a fecha de 8 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve Will Elon Musk tweet that a Grok Sucessor has achieved 'AGI-level performance' or 'AGI has been reached' in 2026??
- Está previsto que Will Elon Musk tweet that a Grok Sucessor has achieved 'AGI-level performance' or 'AGI has been reached' in 2026? se resuelva el 31 de diciembre de 2026.
- ¿Cómo se liquida Will Elon Musk tweet that a Grok Sucessor has achieved 'AGI-level performance' or 'AGI has been reached' in 2026??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: Resolution criteria