¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Will a LLM trained with FP4 have frontier-level performance before 2028??

Manifold Markets cotiza No al 67.2% a fecha de 26 de octubre de 2026.

Will a LLM trained with FP4 have frontier-level performance before 2028?

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Datos del 26 oct 2026, 5:51 UTC · política pm-quality-4

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No 67.2%

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Actualizado hace 8 horas

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19 feb 25, 9:08 UTC1 ene 28, 4:59 UTC

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In 2023, it was said:

Currently, the technology for 4-bit training does not exists, but research looks promising and I expect the first high performance FP4 Large Language Model (LLM) with competitive predictive performance to be trained in 1-2 years time.
(see: https://timdettmers.com/2023/01/16/which-gpu-for-deep-learning/)
Currently, the technology for 4-bit training does exists, but research doesn't look promising and I expect a high performance FP4 Large Language Model (LLM) with competitive predictive performance to maybe never be trained.
Will it be trained, before 2028?
granted, the model must be opensource, or have public information about its training, for it to be considered, as we would otherwise not know.