Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualNo 59.1%
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6
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
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Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 10 horas
Desactualizado11 abr 26, 16:54 UTC31 mar 27, 22:59 UTC
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Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
Will the United States become more authoritarian in 2026?
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PolymarketNothing Ever Happens: 2026
PolymarketIran blockade lifted before Xi visits US?
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This question will use The Economist's Democracy Index, resolving YES if China's democracy score is lower in the next report (to be published in early 2027) compared to the last report.
- If the report is paywalled, I may resolve to a secondary source such as Wikipedia.
- If China's democracy score for 2026 is the same or higher, this question resolves NO.
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- 🇺🇸 @/cash/will-the-us-become-more-authoritari
- 🇺🇸 @/cash/will-the-united-states-become-more-QNC56OL95y
Mercados abiertos
Middle EastPOLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30-6.0pt74%
- September 18-6.0pt69%
- September 11-10.0pt61%
+2 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 1 M €
- Volumen 24h
- 363,6 mil €
POLYMARKETStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- No+3.0pt79.2%
- Yes-3.0pt20.8%
- Volumen total
- 9,3 M €
- Volumen 24h
- 245,6 mil €
POLYMARKETPrime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- Gadi Eizenkot+2.8pt57.6%
- Benjamin Netanyahu+1.0pt28.3%
- Naftali Bennett-1.0pt7.1%
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-0.3pt49.6%
- October 31-1.0pt29.1%
- September 30-1.0pt12%
+17 resultados más
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+20 resultados más
POLYMARKETKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- December 317%
- September 30+0.1pt1%
- July 310%
+7 resultados más
- Volumen total
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?
- Israel closes its airspace by which date?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 15?
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal?
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
- Next round of US-Iran peace talks by which date?
- Crude Oil all time high by which date?
- Al Nassr vs Abha
- Iran leadership change by which date?
Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Will China become more authoritarian in 2026??
- Manifold Markets cotiza No al 59% a fecha de 9 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve Will China become more authoritarian in 2026??
- Está previsto que Will China become more authoritarian in 2026? se resuelva el 31 de marzo de 2027.
- ¿Cómo se liquida Will China become more authoritarian in 2026??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: This question will use The Economist's Democracy Index, resolving YES if China's democracy score is lower in the next report (to be published in early 2027) compared to the last report.