Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptableAviso de calidad de datosDatos de la fuente degradados
Datos del 26 oct 2026, 5:41 UTC · política pm-quality-4
Pronóstico comunitario actualNo 69.9%
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Actualizado hace 11 horas
Desactualizado15 may 26, 17:35 UTC31 dic 39, 23:59 UTC
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Resolves as YES if there is strong evidence that a European-designed and/or European-operated launch vehicle reaches orbit before January 1st 2040, with every propulsive stage used on that flight having previously flown on an earlier spaceflight.
- “European” means the vehicle is primarily developed or operated by an organisation headquartered in Europe, including ESA member states, the UK, EU countries, or European commercial launch companies.
- A flight counts even if the stages are not recovered again afterward, as long as all stages used to reach orbit had already flown before.
- Test flights count if they reach orbit.
- Suborbital flights do not count.
- Resolves NO if no such flight has occurred before January 1st 2040.