Will a drug designed with significant contribution from an AlphaFold-like system pass a Phase I trial by end of 2025?

Manifold MarketsCerradoSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptable

Este mercado se resolvió: Yes (67.6%)

Resuelto: 15 dic 2025, 11:48

Resolución verificada por el proveedor

CoinRithm tiene evidencia del ganador y del momento de liquidación respaldada por el proveedor para este mercado.

Aviso de calidad de datosDatos de la fuente degradados

Datos del 22 oct 2026, 23:13 UTC · política pm-quality-4

Pronóstico comunitario actual

Pronosticadores

Tipo de pregunta

binary

Metodología

Play-money forecasting platform

Tipo de fuente

Pronóstico

Datos de mercado

Actualizado hace 19 horas

Desactualizado

6 sept 24, 3:00 UTC15 dic 25, 11:48 UTC

Cronología de Probabilidad

Yes67.6%

No32.400000000000006%

Sí

Ganada

Perdida

Reglas

Definitions and Criteria [please read carefully]:

1. "AlphaFold-like system"
An AI system that uses deep learning to predict protein structures or design novel proteins with accuracy comparable to or exceeding AlphaFold 2.
This includes AlphaProteo or similar tools from any company, not just DeepMind.
Significant Contribution:
The AI system must have played a crucial role in the drug's design, as evidenced by at least one of the following:

Mercados abiertos