Which regimes will survive until 2028?
PolíticaOne-OffGeopolíticaOriente MedioRusia / UcraniaChinaAmérica LatinaElección1a
Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actual
Russia 90.6%Líder entre 7 opciones
Russia 90.6%Pronosticadores
17
Tipo de pregunta
multiple choice
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Cambio 7d
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Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 49 minutos
Retrasado10 dic 24, 16:45 UTC2 ene 28, 4:59 UTC
Tendencias
Reglas
Each answer resolves YES if the current ruling regime is not overthrown, dissolved, or ended (as determined by reputable news sources and Western government reports) by Jan 1, 2028.
- Some examples:
- If the current leader dies or ceases to be the leader, but the same party/group remains in power through 2028, this would resolve YES
- A military coup against any of the regimes (even if done by high ranking members of the current regime) resolves NO
- A democratic election in any regime in which the ruling party/leader wins does not resolve NO, but if an opposition party or leader wins, it would resolve NO
- If the regime loses power and then regains it, that still resolves NO
