Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosBien calibradoAviso de calidad de datosDatos obsoletos
Datos del 23 jul 2026, 21:50 UTC · política pm-quality-3
Pronóstico comunitario actualCommercially Available HEMs by 2030: Fully tamper-evident or tamper-proof AI hardware becomes commercially available before 2030 30.4%Líder entre 5 opciones
Pronosticadores
5
Tipo de pregunta
multiple choice
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 4 días
Desactualizado6 feb 26, 13:5231 ene 30, 23:59
Tendencias
Solo fondos simulados, sin dinero realNo es asesoramiento financiero
Resultado elegido
Location Verification for US Export Controls by 2028: The US enacts location verification requirements for exported chips before 2028 (enforcement may not begin until afterward)8%
Tendencia de volumen
$3222 jul2d de datos23 jul
Mercados Relacionados
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026
708,1 €Sí: 75%
POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
European country agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by which date?
0 €December 31: 10%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by December 31?
175,8 €Sí: 14%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
What will the tariff rate on Chinese imports be on Jan 1, 2027?
0 €10% or above: 0%
KALSHI
KALSHI
What will the tariff rate on EU imports be on Jan 1, 2027?
0 €10% or above: 79%KALSHI
KALSHI
What will the tariff rate on Mexican imports be on Jan 1, 2027?
0 €10% or above: 0%KALSHI
KALSHIActivos en estos temas
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More context for these scenarios is provided in this article on the Forecasting AI Futures blog.
- I will not bet on this market.
- Resolution Criteria
- Each answer resolves YES if the specified governance scenario occurs by the stated deadline, and NO otherwise.
- Several scenarios can come true, and I'll use my best judgement to resolve each one.
- Location Verification for US Export Controls: Resolves YES if the US requires location verification for exported AI chips before 2028.