Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualJul-Dec 2026 43.7%-7.1ptLíder entre 5 opciones
Pronosticadores
16
Tipo de pregunta
multiple choice
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Cambio 7d
-8.6 pts
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 13 minutos
25 sept 25, 22:16 UTC25 sept 26, 22:14 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
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PolymarketReglas
Update 2025-09-25 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Release can be to a limited group (e.g., a closed beta), not only a public launch.
- Must be a real, new model by SSI — not a white‑labeled/rebranded external LLM.
- Requires third‑party confirmation of the model’s existence and that it is new.
Mercados abiertos
AIKALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+1.2pt69.2%
- ChatGPT+1.6pt14.4%
- Gemini-1.3pt9.6%
+5 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 10,2 M €
- Volumen 24h
- 125,4 mil €
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+9.0pt78%
- December 15,+9.5pt74%
- November 30,+4.0pt54%
+7 resultados más
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 202791%
- Before Mar 1, 2027+1.0pt89%
- Before Feb 1, 2027-1.0pt82%
+9 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 1,9 M €
POLYMARKETNext Claude Opus released on?
- September 21+61.1pt87.9%
- No release by September 30-10.7pt4%
- September 22-26.9pt1%
+13 resultados más
KALSHIBest AI this week
- Claude92.5%
- ChatGPT0.9%
- Amazon Nova0.9%
+6 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 156,3 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 26,1 mil €
POLYMARKETWill OpenAI launch a consumer hardware product by which date?
- December-13.0pt28%
- October-14.0pt7%
- December 31, 2025-0.2pt0%
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Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de When will SSI release their first model??
- Manifold Markets cotiza Jul-Dec 2026 al 44% a fecha de 21 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve When will SSI release their first model??
- Está previsto que When will SSI release their first model? se resuelva el 25 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cómo se liquida When will SSI release their first model??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: Update 2025-09-25 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Release can be to a limited group (e.g., a closed beta), not only a public launch.