Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actual2026 66.8%-2.9ptLíder entre 6 opciones
Pronosticadores
33
Tipo de pregunta
multiple choice
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Cambio 7d
+11.3 pts
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 3 minutos
13 abr 25, 13:37 UTC1 ene 30, 23:59 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
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KalshiReglas
Safe Superintelligence has famously promised not to release any products until it has achieved its namesake.
- When will SSI launch its first product?
- For the purpose of this market, "product" means a paid product based on an AI foundation model, e.g. a chatbot, model API, or "wrapper app".
- This is meant to exclude minor, miscellaneous sources of revenue.
- Maybe this will create edge cases but I don't want to commit to resolving Yes the first year SSI has revenue >$0.
- Update 2025-04-13 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Product Scope Update:
Mercados abiertos
AIPOLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-6.5pt85%
- December 15,-5.5pt85%
- November 30,-10.5pt82%
+7 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 2,6 M €
- Volumen 24h
- 55,6 mil €
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.8pt68%
- ChatGPT+0.8pt16.5%
- Grok+1.0pt6.8%
+5 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 9,4 M €
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 2027-3.0pt92%
- Before Mar 1, 2027-9.0pt89%
- Before Feb 1, 2027-9.0pt83%
+9 resultados más
POLYMARKETOpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- No IPO by December 31, 2026+4.8pt98%
- 1.5T+-0.9pt2%
- <500B-0.2pt0%
+4 resultados más
KALSHIBest AI this week
- Claude91.6%
- ChatGPT+1.0pt1.9%
- Amazon Nova0.9%
+6 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 71,6 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 34,8 mil €
POLYMARKETWill OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- ↑$900B+10.4pt100%
- ↑$1.0T-4.5pt82%
- ↑$1.25T-10.5pt52%
+12 resultados más
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Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de When will Safe Superintelligence (SSI) release its first product??
- Manifold Markets cotiza 2026 al 67% a fecha de 13 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve When will Safe Superintelligence (SSI) release its first product??
- Está previsto que When will Safe Superintelligence (SSI) release its first product? se resuelva el 1 de enero de 2030.
- ¿Cómo se liquida When will Safe Superintelligence (SSI) release its first product??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: Safe Superintelligence has famously promised not to release any products until it has achieved its namesake.