Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actual
Sí 99%
Pronosticadores
16
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 17 horas
Desactualizado18 ago 25, 2:51 UTC31 dic 30, 23:59 UTC
Tendencias
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Resolution criteria
- Resolve YES if Thinking Machines Lab (TML) publicly releases a product before Safe Superintelligence Inc. (SSI) by 23:59:59 UTC on December 31, 2029; resolve NO if SSI releases first by that deadline; resolve N/A if neither releases by then.
- Public timestamps determine precedence; if exact simultaneous release times cannot be distinguished, resolve N/A. “Product release” means any of: (a) a publicly accessible consumer app or web product; (b) an API/developer platform with public sign‑up or paid access (counts once external users beyond the company are admitted, not at waitlist announcement); (c) an open‑source release of runnable model weights or software with a versioned tag on a public repo; or (d) an App Store/Play Store listing.
- Excludes demos, research papers without runnable code/weights, private NDAs/pilots with a single customer, and fundraising/”we’re building” posts.
- Primary verification sources: official sites/announcements and product pages (TML: https://thinkingmachines.ai/; SSI: https://ssi.inc/), company GitHub/orgs, App Store/Play Store pages, or major tech press with explicit availability and timestamps (e.g., TechCrunch/Reuters).
Mercados abiertos
AIKALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+1.6pt70.7%
- ChatGPT-2.8pt13.1%
- Grok+0.8pt7.1%
+5 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 9,4 M €
- Volumen 24h
- 50,3 mil €
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 15,-1.0pt89%
- December 31,-3.5pt88%
- November 30,-6.5pt85%
+7 resultados más
POLYMARKETWill OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- ↑$900B+10.4pt100%
- ↑$1.0T-4.5pt82%
- ↑$1.25T-4.5pt57%
+12 resultados más
KALSHIBest AI this week
- Claude+1.0pt91.7%
- ChatGPT+1.0pt1.9%
- Gemini0.9%
+6 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 60,6 mil €
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+2.0pt91.4%
- Grok+1.0pt1.9%
- Gemini1.9%
+4 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 425,5 mil €
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 202795%
- Before Mar 1, 2027-9.0pt89%
- Before Feb 1, 2027-8.0pt84%
+9 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 1,5 M €
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
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Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Thinking Machines Lab releases product before Safe Superintelligence??
- Manifold Markets cotiza Yes al 99% a fecha de 12 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve Thinking Machines Lab releases product before Safe Superintelligence??
- Está previsto que Thinking Machines Lab releases product before Safe Superintelligence? se resuelva el 31 de diciembre de 2030.
- ¿Cómo se liquida Thinking Machines Lab releases product before Safe Superintelligence??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: Resolution criteria