Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualBefore February 2027 72.1%Líder entre 5 opciones
Pronosticadores
6
Tipo de pregunta
multiple choice
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Cambio 7d
0.0 pts
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 3 horas
Desactualizado31 ago 26, 14:57 UTC1 feb 27, 4:59 UTC
Tendencias
Reglas
The '+' means any version at or above 2 counts: if Thinking Machines skips Inkling 2 and releases Inkling 2.1 or Inkling 3, that still counts for the purpose of this market.
- Minor changes to the name, or other names for a model generally expected to be called Inkling 2, will also count.
- The model must be accessible without individual vetting or invitation — free or paid, via API or product.
- Open, non-selective waitlists count.
- Closed betas, invite-only access, researcher programs, A/B tests, and anonymous benchmark appearances do not.
- Country-level bans do not prevent resolution.
