Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualSí 86.1%
Pronosticadores
11
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 8 minutos
8 sept 26, 22:26 UTC30 sept 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
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Which company has the best AI model end of October?
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Manifold MarketsReglas
Any model counts.
- Image model, TTS model, a main-line GPT model, any model.
- Obviously, if they release weights with randomly initialized values that won't count but besides that, anything goes.
- Could be an open-weights model or a proprietary model or updates to model series (like GPT-6.1)
- The ChatGPT Image 2.5 model released today will not count
Mercados abiertos
AI
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+1.2pt69.2%
- ChatGPT+1.6pt14.4%
- Gemini-1.3pt9.6%
+5 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 10,2 M €
- Volumen 24h
- 125,4 mil €
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+9.0pt78%
- December 15,+9.5pt74%
- November 30,+4.0pt54%
+7 resultados más
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 202791%
- Before Mar 1, 2027+1.0pt89%
- Before Feb 1, 2027-1.0pt82%
+9 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 1,9 M €
POLYMARKETNext Claude Opus released on?
- September 21+61.1pt87.9%
- No release by September 30-10.7pt4%
- September 22-26.9pt1%
+13 resultados más
KALSHIBest AI this week
- Claude92.5%
- ChatGPT0.9%
- Amazon Nova0.9%
+6 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 156,3 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 26,1 mil €
POLYMARKETWill OpenAI launch a consumer hardware product by which date?
- December-13.0pt28%
- October-14.0pt7%
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Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Will OpenAI release a new model before October??
- Manifold Markets cotiza Yes al 86% a fecha de 21 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve Will OpenAI release a new model before October??
- Está previsto que Will OpenAI release a new model before October? se resuelva el 30 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cómo se liquida Will OpenAI release a new model before October??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: Any model counts.