Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualNot before 2050 38.8%Líder entre 9 opciones
Pronosticadores
48
Tipo de pregunta
multiple choice
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Cambio 7d
0.0 pts
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 10 horas
Desactualizado16 ago 25, 11:55 UTC1 ene 50, 10:49 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
When will China invade Taiwan
Manifold MarketsWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
PolymarketWill China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?
PolymarketWill China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?
PolymarketWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
LimitlessWill China invade Taiwan before the 2026 midterms?
Manifold MarketsReglas
Creating this market because I think the year by year probabilities in my other market are a bit off (at market creation 25% chance of an invasion in 2028 which is a US election year).
- This will resolve to the same date as the other market - have fun arbitraging! See the other market for more detailed resolution criteria.
- (https://manifold.markets/embed/Daniel_MC/when-will-china-invade-taiwan)(https://manifold.markets/embed/Daniel_MC/chinese-invasion-of-taiwan-mega-mar)(I did some initial trades on this market to bring the probabilities in line with the other market, but won't trade further expect to exit that position)
