When will a real money prediction market about OpenAI announcing AGI first stay above 90% for one month?
13.0 pts (24h)IA4mManifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualNot before 2030 68.5%+13.0ptLíder entre 4 opciones
Pronosticadores
18
Tipo de pregunta
multiple choice
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Cambio 7d
+13.0 pts
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 31 minutos
25 mar 24, 3:572 ene 27, 7:59
Tendencias
Reglas
Will a high-volume, real money prediction market expect that OpenAI is at least 90% likely to announce the creation of AGI before 2030?
- This market resolves to the period of time in which an eligible market first stays above 90%, not the period of time that the market predicts AGI to be announced.
- This means that if a real money market in 2025 expects OpenAI to announce AGI in 2027, this market resolves to the option "the named outcome"
- Eligible markets are listed at the bottom of this market description, and more markets will be added as they are created and receive similar amounts of real money trading volume.
- To resolve this Manifold market, an eligible real money market must have limit orders keeping the price above 90% for at least 30 days, with the displayed price never dropping below 90% for more than 24 continuous hours.
- Note: These criteria are still in draft form, and may be updated to better match the spirit of the question.
