¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Trump attempts to use AGI to stay in power after his second term??

Manifold Markets cotiza No al 80% a fecha de 27 de octubre de 2026.

¿Cuándo se resuelve Trump attempts to use AGI to stay in power after his second term??

Está previsto que Trump attempts to use AGI to stay in power after his second term? se resuelva el 31 de diciembre de 2030.

Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptable

Pronóstico comunitario actual

No 80%

Pronosticadores

Tipo de pregunta

binary

Metodología

Play-money forecasting platform

Tipo de fuente

Pronóstico

Datos de mercado

Actualizado hace 2 horas

Desactualizado

6 abr 25, 22:23 UTC31 dic 30, 23:59 UTC

Tendencias

Resultado24hProbabilidad

Reglas

Resolves a YES if there is strong evidence that Donald Trump has attempted to use AGI to stay in power after the end of his second term.

This attempt must occur before January 1st 2030 in order for this question to resolve as YES.
This market does not resolve before January 1st 2031.
Update 2025-04-06 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - AGI Definition: Follow the definition provided in this question.
Minimum Compute Requirement: The attempt must involve at least 100 kWh of inference compute using an AGI-class model.