What will be true about the first AGI that becomes accessible to everyone? [ADD MORE]
IAManifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualRuns entirely on silicon-based non-quantum machines 93.3%Líder entre 23 opciones
Pronosticadores
37
Tipo de pregunta
multiple choice
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Cambio 7d
0.0 pts
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 15 horas
Desactualizado24 abr 24, 12:58 UTC22 mar 50, 22:59 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
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KalshiReglas
"First AGI" refers to the initial publicly acknowledged AI that surpasses the Longbets Turing test and becomes accessible to everyone (in at least 3 countries), prompting the resolution of the "AGI When?" market of the Manifold AI countdown (if not yet resolved).
- (https://manifold.markets/embed/ManifoldAI/agi-when-resolves-to-the-year-in-wh-d5c5ad8e4708)Resolution Criteria:
- Multiple responses can be resolved as YES.
- Additional responses can be submitted.
- If the first AI that meets these criteria is classified as ASI rather than just AGI, it will still qualify under this market.
- An AI that has passed the Longbets Turing test but is not publicly accessible will not be considered the "first." It only counts as the "first" when it becomes accessible to everyone.
Mercados abiertos
AIPOLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028-2.0pt59.8%
- 2027-8.0pt30.8%
- 2026+1.0pt9.3%
- Volumen total
- 225,9 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 157 mil €
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+2.0pt89%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,85%
+7 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 2,4 M €
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.5pt58.1%
- ChatGPT+1.4pt26.7%
- Grok-2.4pt5.7%
+5 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 9,1 M €
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+6.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-max+7.0pt9%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
+3 resultados más
- Volumen total
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 2027+5.0pt97%
- Before Jan 1, 2027+5.0pt96%
- Before Mar 1, 2027-1.0pt94%
+9 resultados más
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+6.0pt79.1%
- ChatGPT-1.0pt11.8%
- Gemini2.7%
+4 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 348,3 mil €
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- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
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- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
- OpenAI market share this week
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- DeepSeek market share this week
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Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de What will be true about the first AGI that becomes accessible to everyone? [ADD MORE]?
- Manifold Markets cotiza Runs entirely on silicon-based non-quantum machines al 93% a fecha de 8 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve What will be true about the first AGI that becomes accessible to everyone? [ADD MORE]?
- Está previsto que What will be true about the first AGI that becomes accessible to everyone? [ADD MORE] se resuelva el 22 de marzo de 2050.
- ¿Cómo se liquida What will be true about the first AGI that becomes accessible to everyone? [ADD MORE]?
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: "First AGI" refers to the initial publicly acknowledged AI that surpasses the Longbets Turing test and becomes accessible to everyone (in at least 3 countries), prompting the resolution of the "AGI When?" market of the Manifold AI countdown (if not yet resolved).