Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptableAviso de calidad de datosDatos de la fuente degradados
Datos del 26 oct 2026, 5:11 UTC · política pm-quality-4
Pronóstico comunitario actual
Trump -> Stay 81.6%Líder entre 6 opciones
Trump -> Stay 81.6%Pronosticadores
32
Tipo de pregunta
multiple choice
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Cambio 7d
0.0 pts
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 3 horas
Desactualizado27 ene 24, 15:17 UTC2 dic 28, 23:01 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
Will the United States (US) withdraw from NATO by December 31, 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill the US withdraw from NATO at anytime during Trump's presidency?
Manifold MarketsTrump attempts to overstay his 2 terms
Manifold MarketsTrump attempts to use AGI to stay in power after his second term?
Manifold MarketsWill US withdraw from NATO by which date?
PolymarketIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
PolymarketReglas
The first half resolves based on the US president after inauguration day 2025.
- The second half resolves based on the actions of the US president during their four year term of office (2025-2029).
- An attempt to leave includes any attempt to send a notice of denunciation under article 13, regardless of whether it is found to be legally valid, and regardless of whether the one year waiting period expires.
- It also includes attempts to leave without invoking that article, such as invoking a fundamental change or circumstances, a material breach, domestic law, annulment, etc. It includes any actions of the executive branch of government, plus any actions of the legislative or judicial branch that are at the direction of the US President.
- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Withdrawal_from_NATO
