Transgender US passports with non-birth gender revoked by February 2029?
One-OffPolítica de EE. UU.Sociedad y culturaSalud y medicina2aManifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosBien calibradoPronóstico comunitario actualSí 60.1%
Pronosticadores
16
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 17 horas
Desactualizado16 nov 25, 1:43 UTC31 ene 29, 23:59 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
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PolymarketReglas
Basically the same as my previous market.
- Same resolution criteria, minus the timeline.
- De facto situation or any legal action trigger resolution.
- Phrasing of end of timeline is weird to maximize handling of edge cases.
- Update 2026-05-30 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The soft revocation scenario (where passports are notionally valid but unusable for re-entry) was an oversight in the original resolution criteria.
- The creator intends to resolve based on what events actually happen rather than specific wording, but acknowledges that the literal text of the market description takes precedence over intent.
