Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualNo 99%
Pronosticadores
21
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 14 horas
Desactualizado24 jun 26, 16:08 UTC30 sept 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 15?
PolymarketStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of September? [Polymarket]
Manifold MarketsStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of October? [Polymarket]
Manifold MarketsStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?
PolymarketStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?
PolymarketWill traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal before September 1, 2026?
ForecastExReglas
This question will resolve if IMF PortWatch reports that the 7 day moving average for the Strait of Hormuz is at least 85 by August 31st.
- This uses Metaculus rules.
- September 30th is currently the median estimate per Metaculus.
- https://www.metaculus.com/questions/42728/strait-of-hormuz-normalization-date/
Comparación de fuentes de predicción
Mercados abiertos
Middle EastPOLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30-8.0pt72%
- September 18-7.5pt68%
- September 11-10.5pt60%
+2 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 978,6 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 379,3 mil €
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-0.3pt49.1%
- October 31-1.0pt29.3%
- September 30-2.0pt12.1%
+17 resultados más
POLYMARKETStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- No+4.5pt80.2%
- Yes-4.5pt19.8%
- Volumen total
- 9,3 M €
- Volumen 24h
- 248,1 mil €
POLYMARKETPrime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- Gadi Eizenkot+5.0pt58.2%
- Benjamin Netanyahu-1.0pt28.6%
- Naftali Bennett-1.0pt7.1%
POLYMARKETIsrael closes its airspace by which date?
- September 30+0.1pt100%
- May 8-1.4pt0%
- May 31-1.2pt0%
+16 resultados más
POLYMARKETKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- December 317%
- September 30+0.3pt1%
- July 310%
+7 resultados más
- Volumen total
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 15?
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?
- When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal?
- Next round of US-Iran peace talks by which date?
- Crude Oil all time high by which date?
- Al Nassr vs Abha
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?
Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of September? [Metaculus]?
- Manifold Markets cotiza No al 99% a fecha de 8 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of September? [Metaculus]?
- Está previsto que Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of September? [Metaculus] se resuelva el 30 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cómo se liquida Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of September? [Metaculus]?
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: This question will resolve if IMF PortWatch reports that the 7 day moving average for the Strait of Hormuz is at least 85 by August 31st.
- ¿Dónde más está listado Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of September? [Metaculus]?
- La misma pregunta también está listada en Polymarket.