Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualNo 82%
Pronosticadores
10
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 2 horas
Desactualizado11 jun 25, 1:33 UTC31 dic 27, 23:59 UTC
Tendencias
Reglas
As of writing, there are nine sovereign nuclear states: USA, Russia, UK, France, China, India, Pakistan, North Korea, and Israel.
- Will there be a tenth by 31 Dec 2027, 23:59:59 UTC?
- Resolves YES if any sovereign state other than the above nine possess nuclear weapons before the above date.
- Otherwise, resolves NO.
- Nuclear weapons sharing agreements do not count.
- The state must have credible and independent capacity to launch nuclear strikes on other (e.g. neighboring) states to count.
Mercados abiertos
Middle East
POLYMARKETIsrael closes its airspace by which date?
- September 30+21.6pt100%
- May 8-1.4pt0%
- May 31-1.2pt0%
+16 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 25,7 M €
- Volumen 24h
- 695 mil €
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-2.5pt48.3%
- October 31-2.0pt29.3%
- September 30-4.0pt12.1%
+17 resultados más
KALSHIAl Qadsiah vs Al Ahli Saudi
- Al Qadsiah+21.0pt68.6%
- Tie-3.0pt20.6%
- Al Ahli Saudi-17.0pt10.8%
- Volumen total
POLYMARKETPrime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- Gadi Eizenkot+3.0pt55.1%
- Benjamin Netanyahu28.6%
- Naftali Bennett8.2%
+16 resultados más
POLYMARKETStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?
- No+0.1pt98%
- Yes-0.1pt2%
- Volumen total
- 6,9 M €
- Volumen 24h
- 107,6 mil €
POLYMARKETStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 15?
- No+0.1pt100%
- Yes-0.1pt0%
- Volumen total
- 1,5 M €
- Volumen 24h
- 104,5 mil €
- US x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- Al-Ittihad vs Al-Fayha
- Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
- When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal?
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- US-Iran nuclear deal?
- Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by which date?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- Netanyahu out by which date?
Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de New sovereign nuclear state by EOY2027??
- Manifold Markets cotiza No al 82% a fecha de 8 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve New sovereign nuclear state by EOY2027??
- Está previsto que New sovereign nuclear state by EOY2027? se resuelva el 31 de diciembre de 2027.
- ¿Cómo se liquida New sovereign nuclear state by EOY2027??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: As of writing, there are nine sovereign nuclear states: USA, Russia, UK, France, China, India, Pakistan, North Korea, and Israel.