Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualNo 89.1%
Pronosticadores
12
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 3 horas
Desactualizado14 ago 25, 4:32 UTC30 abr 27, 22:59 UTC
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Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
What will the next Bond film make at the box office?
Manifold MarketsWill Jeff Bezos and Lauren Sanchez get Divorced/ Separate in 2027?
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KalshiNext James Bond film: Actress cast as Bond girl
KalshiNext James Bond film: Artist performing the James Bond Theme
KalshiNext James Bond film: Actor cast as the villain
KalshiReglas
[image]Resolves YES if Lauren Sanchez has a speaking role in the next major James Bond film, or if she's centrally on screen for any scene (even if the role is non-speaking).
- Resolves NO otherwise.
- NOTE: I'm adding this higher bar because I want to capture "the sort of casting that would annoy people"—if she shows up as a cameo in the background, it really doesn't matter.
- So if she says any words, that automatically is enough to resolve YES (even if it's a tiny role).
- But if she's a key part of any single scene (e.g., you see her in peril in some action scene), that resolves YES as well.
- My intuitive bar will be roughly "someone be certain to notice her role in the movie if they were looking for it" (if most people watching the movie would have no clue who her character is, e.g., a background cameo, I don't want to resolve it YES).
