Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualNo 98%
Pronosticadores
16
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 16 horas
Desactualizado6 ene 26, 0:47 UTC1 ene 27, 7:59 UTC
Tendencias
Activos Sensibles al Macro
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
Kevin Warsh out as Fed chair?
KalshiWill Trump try to fire Powell as Fed Chair or Governor?
KalshiPredicted Fed rate under each Fed Chair
PolymarketDouble digit US inflation within six months of Jerome Powell's leaving as Fed chair?
Manifold MarketsWarsh out as Fed Chair by which date?
PolymarketWhat will Kevin Warsh say during his September press conference?
KalshiReglas
Part of Matt Yglesias' "Predictions for 2026" from his Slow Boring newsletter.
- Source: [Predictions for 2026](https://www.slowboring.com/i/181456375/predictions-for) Yglesias assigned 80% probability to this prediction.
- Original prediction: "Kevin Hassett becomes Fed chair" Resolution: Will resolve based on Yglesias' own assessment in his January 2027 review post.
- If he doesn't publish one, market creator will resolve based on the outcome.
Mercados abiertos
FedKALSHIFed decision in Sep 2026?
- Hike 25bps+1.0pt52.4%
- Fed maintains rate-1.0pt44.7%
- Hike >25bps1%
+2 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 34,8 M €
- Volumen 24h
- 2,2 M €
POLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+1.0pt53%
- No change-2.0pt47%
- 50+ bps decrease0%
+2 resultados más
ROBINHOOD (ROTHERA)Fed rate decision in September 2026
- Hike 25bps+5.0pt48.6%
- Fed maintains rate-4.0pt44.9%
- Cut 25bps2.8%
+2 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 543,5 mil €
KALSHINumber of rate cuts in 2026?
- Exactly 0 cuts-0.3pt90.1%
- Exactly 1 cut+1.0pt8.9%
- Exactly 2 cuts-0.9pt1%
+18 resultados más
- Volumen total
POLYMARKETHow many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
- 0 (0 bps)+0.3pt93%
- 1 (25 bps)5%
- 2 (50 bps)2%
+10 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 44,4 M €
POLYMARKETFed Decision in October?
- No change66%
- 25 bps increase30.1%
- 25 bps decrease-0.1pt2.9%
+2 resultados más
- Volumen total
- Fed rate cut before 2027?
- Fed funds rate after Sep 2026 meeting?
- Next Fed rate hike?
- Will the Fed leave the rate unchanged in September 2026?
- Fed Rate Decision (Dec 2026)
- How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?
- Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?
- Fed decision in Oct 2026?
- Fed rate hike by which date?
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- What will Kevin Warsh say during his September press conference?
Criptos relacionadas
Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Kevin Hassett becomes Fed chair in 2026??
- Manifold Markets cotiza No al 98% a fecha de 8 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve Kevin Hassett becomes Fed chair in 2026??
- Está previsto que Kevin Hassett becomes Fed chair in 2026? se resuelva el 1 de enero de 2027.
- ¿Cómo se liquida Kevin Hassett becomes Fed chair in 2026??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: Part of Matt Yglesias' "Predictions for 2026" from his Slow Boring newsletter.