Probabilidad implícita actual
Kevin Warsh 95%Líder entre 9 opciones
Calidad del mercado
≤49 / 100
Baja calidadVolumen 24h
—
Liquidez
6,4 mil €
Liquidez mediaSpread
2.7 pt
Spread moderadoComentarios
0
Cambio 7d
-0.1 pts
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 7 minutos
20 ene 26, 13:29 UTC1 ene 27, 4:59 UTC
Tendencias
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
Activos Sensibles al Macro
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
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KalshiDouble digit US inflation within six months of Jerome Powell's leaving as Fed chair?
Manifold MarketsKevin Hassett becomes Fed chair in 2026?
Manifold MarketsKevin Warsh out as Fed chair?
KalshiWarsh out as Fed Chair by which date?
PolymarketFed rate cut before 2027?
KalshiReglas
This market will resolve according to the combined outcome of who will be confirmed as the next Fed Chair and whether the Fed’s lower bound will reach 2.5% or lower (https://polymarket.com/event/what-will-fed-rate-hit-before-2027) at any point by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- This market will resolve to “Other” if an outcome not listed occurs within the specified timeframe.
- This market may resolve as soon as the respective conditions are met.
- The rules and resolution criteria are as follows:
- Who be confirmed as the next Fed Chair? This market will resolve according to the next individual confirmed by the U.S. Senate to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Confirmation is defined as approval by the U.S. Senate, whether by a majority vote or by unanimous consent.
Mercados abiertos
FedKALSHIFed decision in Sep 2026?
- Hike 25bps+3.0pt53.9%
- Fed maintains rate-1.0pt43.3%
- Hike >25bps1%
+2 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 35 M €
- Volumen 24h
- 1,7 M €
POLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+1.0pt54%
- No change-2.0pt45%
- 50+ bps increase+0.3pt1%
+2 resultados más
ROBINHOOD (ROTHERA)Fed rate decision in September 2026
- Hike 25bps+5.0pt52.4%
- Fed maintains rate-4.0pt42%
- Hike >25bps-2.0pt2.4%
+2 resultados más
- Volumen total
POLYMARKETHow many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
- 0 (0 bps)+0.2pt93.9%
- 1 (25 bps)-0.8pt4%
- 2 (50 bps)-0.4pt2%
+10 resultados más
KALSHINumber of rate cuts in 2026?
- Exactly 0 cuts+0.6pt91.1%
- Exactly 1 cut+0.1pt7.9%
- Exactly 2 cuts-0.2pt1%
+18 resultados más
- Volumen total
POLYMARKETFed Decision in October?
- No change66.7%
- 25 bps increase30.4%
- 25 bps decrease-0.5pt2%
+2 resultados más
- Volumen total
- Fed funds rate after Sep 2026 meeting?
- Next Fed rate hike?
- Will the Fed leave the rate unchanged in September 2026?
- Fed Rate Decision (Dec 2026)
- Fed rate cut before 2027?
- How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?
- Fed rate hike by which date?
- What will Kevin Warsh say during his September press conference?
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- Jerome Powell departure as Fed Governor announced?
- Fed Decision in December?
Criptos relacionadas
Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Predicted Fed rate under each Fed Chair?
- Polymarket cotiza Kevin Warsh al 95% a fecha de 9 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve Predicted Fed rate under each Fed Chair?
- Está previsto que Predicted Fed rate under each Fed Chair se resuelva el 1 de enero de 2027.
- ¿Cómo se liquida Predicted Fed rate under each Fed Chair?
- Polymarket liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: This market will resolve according to the combined outcome of who will be confirmed as the next Fed Chair and whether the Fed’s lower bound will reach 2.5% or lower (https://polymarket.com/event/what-will-fed-rate-hit-before-2027) at any point by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.