If Trump wins, what will the US unemployment rate be at the end of 2026?
EconomíaOne-OffPolíticaPolítica de EE. UU.Elección3m
Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptableAviso de calidad de datosDatos de la fuente degradados
Datos del 25 oct 2026, 20:40 UTC · política pm-quality-4
Pronóstico comunitario actualNo 56%
Pronosticadores
5
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 13 horas
Desactualizado11 mar 24, 5:35 UTC2 feb 27, 7:59 UTC
Tendencias
Reglas
If Trump does not win the 2024 US presidential election, resolves N/A.
- For example, an unemployment rate of 3.9% would result in a "39%" resolution on this question, and so on.
- An unemployment rate of 10% or higher results in a "Yes" resolution on this question.
- I will use BLS's seasonally-adjusted civilian unemployment rate, as here: https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/civilian-unemployment-rate.htm# I'll use the last published datapoint for 2026.
- (I'll wait until February 2027 in case of revisions, and use the most recent revision at that time.)
