If Republicans keep the Senate in 2026, will there be a federal government shutdown in 2027?
EconomíaOne-OffPolíticaPolítica de EE. UU.1a
Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosBien calibradoPronóstico comunitario actualSí 56.5%
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7
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binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Actualizado hace 23 minutos
7 oct 26, 2:55 UTC31 dic 27, 23:59 UTC
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KalshiReglas
Condition: Republicans control the U.S. Senate when the 120th Congress convenes on January 3, 2027: Republican senators hold at least 50 seats (with the Republican Vice President breaking ties).
- Otherwise this market resolves N/A. Resolves YES if a lapse in federal appropriations causes a shutdown (agencies begin orderly shutdown procedures and furlough non-excepted employees) that starts at any time during calendar year 2027 (U.S. Eastern time), whether full or partial.
- A lapse that starts in 2026 and continues into 2027 does not count; one starting in 2027 counts even if brief.
- Resolves NO otherwise.
- This is one half of a conditional pair; its twin asks the same question if Democrats win the Senate.