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Play-money forecasting platform
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Desactualizado10 ago 23, 15:52 UTC2 ene 33, 7:59 UTC
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Will we deploy large geoengineering efforts to thwart a runaway global warming before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill global warming be 1.5 °Celsius or higher in 2027, according to Berkeley Earth?
Manifold MarketsWill global warming be 1.5 °Celsius or higher in 2026, according to Berkeley Earth?
Manifold MarketsWill we (temporarily) cross the 3 degrees celcius of global warming by 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill there be an international moratorium on frontier AGI development by EOY 2033?
Manifold MarketsNothing Ever Happens: 2026
PolymarketReglas
[Temporary market to group comments and feedback.
- I'll adjust the description and terms before officially starting it.
- If lots of people bet before it starts I may NA this one and make another one.
- There will be a series of markets about geoengineering covering different time scales and different organizations doing the work such as the usgov, in, EU, China, as well as other private companies.
- Please let me know what you think here or in discord]
- Musk, an existing company he founded, or a future company he founds will announce actual projects happening to do very large scale geoengineering to effect or relieve global warming by removing carbon from the atmosphere, or by reducing light absorption to the atmosphere using solar sails or umbrellas, or by emitting sulfur to reflect more light, or other project large scale.