Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actual01.01.2030 80.5%Líder entre 9 opciones
Pronosticadores
7
Tipo de pregunta
multiple choice
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Cambio 7d
+11.6 pts
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 9 minutos
10 oct 25, 11:001 ene 30, 23:59
Tendencias
0%
Reglas
This market is part of the paper: A Concrete Roadmap towards Safety Cases based on Chain-of-Thought Monitoring
- This market resolves based on whether, at each specified date, all SOTA reasoning models use non-token-based (’neuralese’) reasoning.
- Neuralese Reasoning Definition
- A reasoning model uses "neuralese reasoning" if the architecture allows some activation to sequentially go through at least some part of the network an arbitrary number of times without at some point being projected from a continuous multidimensional activation into a discrete state (like token IDs).
- Specific Resolution Cases
- Counts as neuralese reasoning: Tokens are generated but there is also a residual connection that feeds back continuous activations into earlier layers
