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  1. Mercados de Predicción
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  3. By what date will all SOTA reasoning models use neuralese?
Manifold Markets

By what date will all SOTA reasoning models use neuralese?

One-OffIATecnologíaCiencia3a
Manifold MarketsManifold MarketsSin KYC
Pronóstico comunitario actual
Manifold Markets
01.01.2026 0%
Líder entre 9 opciones
Pronosticadores

4

Tipo de pregunta

multiple choice

Metodología

Play-money forecasting platform

Tipo de fuente

Pronóstico

Datos de mercado

Actualizado hace 4 días

Desactualizado
10 oct 25, 11:001 ene 30, 23:59

Tendencias

Resultado24hProbabilidad

Resultado elegido

01.07.20266%

Reglas

This market is part of the paper: A Concrete Roadmap towards Safety Cases based on Chain-of-Thought Monitoring

Manifold Markets
  • This market resolves based on whether, at each specified date, all SOTA reasoning models use non-token-based (’neuralese’) reasoning.
  • Neuralese Reasoning Definition
  • A reasoning model uses "neuralese reasoning" if the architecture allows some activation to sequentially go through at least some part of the network an arbitrary number of times without at some point being projected from a continuous multidimensional activation into a discrete state (like token IDs).
  • Specific Resolution Cases
  • Counts as neuralese reasoning: Tokens are generated but there is also a residual connection that feeds back continuous activations into earlier layers

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Reglas

This market is part of the paper: A Concrete Roadmap towards Safety Cases based on Chain-of-Thought Monitoring

Manifold Markets
  • This market resolves based on whether, at each specified date, all SOTA reasoning models use non-token-based (’neuralese’) reasoning.
  • Neuralese Reasoning Definition
  • A reasoning model uses "neuralese reasoning" if the architecture allows some activation to sequentially go through at least some part of the network an arbitrary number of times without at some point being projected from a continuous multidimensional activation into a discrete state (like token IDs).
  • Specific Resolution Cases
  • Counts as neuralese reasoning: Tokens are generated but there is also a residual connection that feeds back continuous activations into earlier layers