¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de By what date will all state-of-the-art general-purpose AI systems not be reasoning models??

Manifold Markets cotiza 01.01.2030 al 59% a fecha de 23 de octubre de 2026.

By what date will all state-of-the-art general-purpose AI systems not be reasoning models?

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Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptable

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01.01.2030 59%

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Actualizado hace 3 horas

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10 oct 25, 10:56 UTC1 ene 30, 11:23 UTC

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This market is part of the paper: A Concrete Roadmap towards Safety Cases based on Chain-of-Thought Monitoring

This market resolves based on whether, at each specified date, all models considered SOTA are not reasoning models.
Reasoning Model Definition
A "reasoning model" must meet all of the following criteria:
It is a Language Model - The system must be able to input and output language.
As an example of what would not count: AlphaGo