Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualNo 96.6%
Pronosticadores
49
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 1 hora
Retrasado17 may 24, 8:51 UTC31 dic 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
Will MNX commission a new longform piece about AI by a Manifold user before November?
Manifold MarketsWill the SCOTUS hear a case about AI and copyright law before 2027?
KalshiWill there be an xkcd about AI in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill there be polling about AI voting advice in 2026 midterms?
Manifold MarketsContingent on AI being perceived as a threat, will humans deliberately cause an AI winter before 2030?
Manifold MarketsBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiReglas
Same as https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/are-we-about-to-hit-another-ai-wint?r=TWF4aW1lUmljaGU, but about the year 2026.
- Quote: """ Inspired by https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/smells-a-little-bit-like-ai-winter
- Resolves extremely subjectively, based on whether it seems to me at the end of 2024 like AI progress has stalled and people have gotten much less interested in it. """
- [link preview]
