Contingent on AI being perceived as a threat, will humans deliberately cause an AI winter before 2030?
IAOne-Off3a
Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actual
No 78%
Pronosticadores
53
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
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Actualizado hace 6 horas
Desactualizado24 mar 23, 0:48 UTC1 ene 30, 5:59 UTC
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KalshiReglas
Two things must happen for this market to resolve "YES":
- 1) We need three major polls with a > 50% response to some variant of the question "Do you feel AI is a threat to the human race" (not just to jobs).
- We need to see at least one such poll in three different OECD countries, and one of those has to be the United States.
- 2) Humans must then deliberately cause an "AI winter" which causes the rate of AI development to significantly slow.
- This latter part will be resolved somewhat subjectively but I'll do my best to base it on convincing measurable signals.
- It doesn't matter which humans cause the winter or how they go about creating it, just that there's a clear intention of bringing about an AI winter, and that an AI winter actually happens.
Mercados abiertos
AIPOLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028-11.0pt62.4%
- 2027-3.5pt29.7%
- 2026-1.5pt7.9%
- Volumen total
- 241,3 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 128 mil €
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-2.0pt88%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,+1.0pt85%
+7 resultados más
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KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-1.7pt58.8%
- ChatGPT-2.1pt23.5%
- Grok+2.3pt7.8%
+5 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 9,1 M €
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+1.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-max+3.0pt10%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking+1.0pt5%
+3 resultados más
- Volumen total
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 2027+5.0pt97%
- Before Jan 1, 2027+5.0pt96%
- Before Mar 1, 2027-1.0pt94%
+9 resultados más
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+1.0pt80.6%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt10.2%
- Gemini+1.0pt2.8%
+4 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 349,4 mil €
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Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Contingent on AI being perceived as a threat, will humans deliberately cause an AI winter before 2030??
- Manifold Markets cotiza No al 78% a fecha de 9 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve Contingent on AI being perceived as a threat, will humans deliberately cause an AI winter before 2030??
- Está previsto que Contingent on AI being perceived as a threat, will humans deliberately cause an AI winter before 2030? se resuelva el 1 de enero de 2030.
- ¿Cómo se liquida Contingent on AI being perceived as a threat, will humans deliberately cause an AI winter before 2030??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: Two things must happen for this market to resolve "YES":