Contingent on AI being perceived as a threat, will humans deliberately cause an AI winter before 2030?
IAOne-Off3a
Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosBien calibradoPronóstico comunitario actualNo 77.6%
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53
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binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Actualizado hace 13 horas
Desactualizado24 mar 23, 0:48 UTC1 ene 30, 5:59 UTC
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PolymarketReglas
Two things must happen for this market to resolve "YES":
- 1) We need three major polls with a > 50% response to some variant of the question "Do you feel AI is a threat to the human race" (not just to jobs).
- We need to see at least one such poll in three different OECD countries, and one of those has to be the United States.
- 2) Humans must then deliberately cause an "AI winter" which causes the rate of AI development to significantly slow.
- This latter part will be resolved somewhat subjectively but I'll do my best to base it on convincing measurable signals.
- It doesn't matter which humans cause the winter or how they go about creating it, just that there's a clear intention of bringing about an AI winter, and that an AI winter actually happens.
