Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actual
No 73%
Pronosticadores
55
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 15 horas
Desactualizado15 mar 23, 14:15 UTC1 ene 31, 4:59 UTC
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Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
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PolymarketReglas
Will humans intentionally create a global AI winter, slowing or pausing AI development? This would include government policies, coordination among major AI developers, intentional destruction of resources (legal or illegal), or any other action intended specifically to plateau (or regress) AI development.
- The resolution of this will necessarily be subjective, but significant actions with the intent of pausing AI development happening in conjunction of an apparent pause in increasing AI capabilities of at least 12 months will resolve this YES.
Mercados abiertos
AIPOLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028-11.0pt62.4%
- 2027-3.5pt29.7%
- 2026-1.5pt7.9%
- Volumen total
- 241,3 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 128 mil €
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-2.0pt88%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,+1.0pt85%
+7 resultados más
- Volumen total
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-1.7pt58.8%
- ChatGPT-2.1pt23.5%
- Grok+2.3pt7.8%
+5 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 9,1 M €
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+1.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-max+3.0pt10%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking+1.0pt5%
+3 resultados más
- Volumen total
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 2027+5.0pt97%
- Before Jan 1, 2027+5.0pt96%
- Before Mar 1, 2027-1.0pt94%
+9 resultados más
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+1.0pt80.6%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt10.2%
- Gemini+1.0pt2.8%
+4 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 349,4 mil €
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
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Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Will humans deliberately cause an AI winter??
- Manifold Markets cotiza No al 73% a fecha de 9 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve Will humans deliberately cause an AI winter??
- Está previsto que Will humans deliberately cause an AI winter? se resuelva el 1 de enero de 2031.
- ¿Cómo se liquida Will humans deliberately cause an AI winter??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: Will humans intentionally create a global AI winter, slowing or pausing AI development? This would include government policies, coordination among major AI developers, intentional destruction of resources (legal or illegal), or any other action intended specifically to plateau (or regress) AI development.