KalshiComprobar disponibilidadKYC requerido2% de comisiónDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptableProbabilidad implícita actual
Above $600 billion 100%Líder entre 8 opcionesAjustado por margen: las cotizaciones brutas sumaban más del 100% y se normalizaron.
Calidad del mercado
45 / 100
Baja calidadVolumen 24h
—
Liquidez
1,7 €
Baja liquidezSpread
4.0 pt
Spread moderadoDatos de mercado
Actualizado hace 13 minutos
26 ago 26, 19:00 UTC2 feb 32, 13:29 UTC
Tendencias
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
Reglas
If the U.S. goods and services deficit for calendar year 2031 is strictly the named outcome dollars, then the market resolves to Yes.
Liquida mediante:U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and the U.S. Census Bureau
- The Underlying is the nominal goods and services balance on a balance-of-payments basis.
- It will not use the goods-only deficit, the advance goods report, the December monthly deficit, or inflation-adjusted trade data.
- Because the agencies generally report the balance as a negative number, the market will use the absolute size of the deficit.
- For example, an annual trade balance of −$800.1 billion constitutes a trade deficit of $800.1 billion.
- Resolution will use the first annual estimate published in the release covering December of 2031.
Mercados abiertos
Inflation
POLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+1.0pt54%
- No change-2.0pt45%
- 50+ bps increase+0.1pt1%
+2 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 91 M €
- Volumen 24h
- 1,7 M €
KALSHIInflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Above 2.7%+1.0pt99%
- Above 2.9%99%
- Above 2.5%99%
+23 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 569,7 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 47,4 mil €
KALSHICPI in August
- Above 0.1%+2.0pt99%
- Above -0.4%+1.0pt99%
- Above -0.3%99%
+12 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 359,2 mil €
- Volumen 24h
POLYMARKETFed rate hike by which date?
- October Meeting+3.0pt54.5%
- September Meeting+2.0pt45.5%
- April Meeting-0.1pt0%
+2 resultados más
KALSHINYC median asking rent in December 2026
- Above $3,80095%
- Above $3,900+1.0pt82%
- Above $4,00044%
+5 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 79,7 mil €
- Volumen 24h
KALSHICPI core in August
- Above 0.0%99%
- Above 0.1%+5.0pt86%
- Above 0.2%36%
+8 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 18,3 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 7,3 mil €
- CPI year-over-year in Aug 2026?
- Fed rate hike in 2026?
- Core CPI MoM - August 2026
- CPI in September
- How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?
- Fed decisions (Jun-Sep)
- CPI-U index in August
- How high will inflation get in 2026?
- State of the economy at the end of 2026
- Core CPI YoY - August 2026
- Inflation in September 2026 (CPI YoY)
- August 2026 CPI MoM Combo: Headline & Core
Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de US trade deficit for 2031?
- Kalshi cotiza Above $600 billion al 100% a fecha de 9 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve US trade deficit for 2031?
- Está previsto que US trade deficit for 2031 se resuelva el 2 de febrero de 2032.
- ¿Cómo se liquida US trade deficit for 2031?
- Kalshi liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: If the U.S. goods and services deficit for calendar year 2031 is strictly the named outcome dollars, then the market resolves to Yes.